P(doom) Calculator

Estimate the probability of AI-related existential catastrophe based on your beliefs about key factors.

How It Works

Enter your nickname and answer questions about AI risk factors
Get your P(doom) estimate for 2035 based on a Bayesian Network
See heuristic projections for 2040 and 2060
Compare your estimates with 13 AI experts and researchers
Get a personalized certificate and share your results
Click on experts to learn about their backgrounds and sources

Educational Purpose

This tool is designed for educational purposes to help people think about AI risk in a structured way. The P(doom) estimates are subjective and should not be taken as scientific predictions.